Three Possible Taiwan Futures Essay -- essays research papers

chinawares past and present are inextricably linked to that of the batchs country of china. Therefore, single cannot begin to postulate and critically gossip upon a practicable mainland China future without first assessing the prevailing political climate of her mainland cousin the Peoples commonwealth of China. Given the flow rhetoric espoused by both Taipei and Beijing, genius may make do that three possible Taiwan futures emerge as most promising to occur. These scenarios, from most to least probable, are 1) peaceful reunion with the mainland China one country, two systems 2) a referendum declaring Taiwan a supreme state, independent of the chinaware and 3) reunion achieved via a chinaware initiated military action.It is not insignificant that the Republic of China, Taiwan, and the Peoples Republic of China, Communist Mainland China, have consistently and unequivocally asserted a sacrosanct principle regarding the state of Sino-Taiwanese relations that there is only one China. Furthermore, in February 1972, the United States and the Peoples Republic of China issued a joint communiqu stating, ...the United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait watch there is unless one China and that Taiwan is a part of China (www.chinanews.org). Therefore, one may argue that the first and most likely scenario for a possible Taiwan future is peaceful reunification one country, two systems.The bag for peaceful reunification one country, two systems was laid in January 1979 when the stand Committee of the National Peoples Congress of the Peoples Republic of China called for an end to military hostilities between the PRC and Taiwan. The stand up Committee asserted that in its quest for national reunification, the PRC get out respect the status quo on Taiwan and the views of people of all walks of liveliness there and adopt reasonable policies and measures. In September 1981, the Chairman of the NPC rest Committee, Ye Jianying, reiterated this policy. Jianying avowed, ...after the country is reunified, Taiwan can enjoy a high power point of autonomy as a special administrative region (www.chinanews.org). Furthermore, in January 1982, Chinas paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, remarked that in the event of national reunification the PRC would continue with its socialist system while Taiwan could maintain capitalism.In August of 1993, the S... ...of Taiwan in the event of a PRC invasion. One may argue that the Peoples Republic of China is not yet ready to enter into a direct showdown with the US. The second obstacle that precludes a PRC invasion of Taiwan is the absence seizure of a littoral fleet capable of m homogeneousg a continue assault on Taiwan. With the Taiwanese army firmly entrenched in the Pescadores and on the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, an amphibious assault on Taiwan would be akin to swallowing a poison shrimp. The third, and perhaps most important, obstacle that precludes a PRC inva sion of Taiwan is stigma attached to the employment of nuclear weapons. It is exceedingly unlikely that the PRC would be willing to use nuclear weapons against opposite Chinese.It is possible to envision three distinct Taiwan futures 1) peaceful reunification with the PRC one country, two systems 2) a referendum declaring Taiwan a sovereign state, independent of the PRC and 3) reunification achieved via a PRC initiated military action. However, until the political winds in Beijing change, it is unlikely that Taiwans current obscure status on the world stage will change. For the time being, Taiwans future remains cloudy and uncertain.